Pick a miner and see its live odds of finding a full block on its own, like a lottery ticket: your chance this year, and for the next block, today and this month, at the current network difficulty. Every Bitcoin (SHA-256) and Litecoin + Dogecoin (Scrypt) miner we list is ranked below.
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Estimate at a point in time. Odds move with every difficulty adjustment and with your miner's real uptime and hashrate. Solo pools keep a small fee from the block. Over the long run, solo and pool mining pay the same on average: solo turns the steady pool payout into a rare, all-or-nothing draw. For steady daily figures, use the mining profitability calculator. Information only, not financial advice: see the disclaimer and the step-by-step calculation.
What is solo mining (lottery mining)?
Solo mining, often called lottery mining, means pointing your miner at a solo pool instead of a shared pool. You give up the small, regular payouts of a pool. In exchange, when your miner finds a block, you keep the whole block reward (the block subsidy plus the transaction fees of that block), minus the solo pool's fee. Until then, you earn nothing from mining.
Home miners are the classic lottery machines: they run on a household circuit, stay quiet enough for a room, and almost every watt they draw comes back as heat.
How we calculate your odds
Every hash your miner computes has the same tiny chance of solving the next block. The network difficulty sets how many hashes a block takes on average: difficulty × 232. Block finding follows a Poisson process, so the odds over any period come from one number, your expected blocks per day.
chance within t days = 1 − e−(expected blocks per day × t)
“1 in N” = 1 ÷ chance
The network data is read every 15 minutes from two independent public sources, and a reading is used only when they agree:
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Bitcoin: difficulty and block height from a Bitcoin node (
getmininginfo), which must match mempool.space. - Litecoin: difficulty and block height from litecoinspace.org, which must match blockchair.
- Dogecoin: the difficulty changes with every block, so we use the hashrate of the last 300 blocks (about five hours). Each reading is checked block by block against blockcypher.
The jackpot shown on each ticket is the block subsidy at the next block height plus the average transaction fees of recent blocks, valued at the latest coin price. If the sources disagree, the last verified reading stays on screen with its time.
Every step, check and source is detailed in how solo mining odds are calculated.
Bitcoin or Scrypt: which lottery?
A Bitcoin block is the big jackpot, with long odds for a single home miner. A Scrypt miner plays two smaller draws at once: on a merged-mining solo pool, the same work can find a Litecoin block and a Dogecoin block. The odds are much better, the prize much smaller. Compare both in the calculator above.
Solo mining FAQ
Does a long run without a block make the next one more likely?
No. Every hash is independent, so your chance on the next block is the same after a year of mining as it was on day one. Your odds for the year ahead are the same every year, as long as the difficulty does not change.
Is solo mining worth it?
On average, solo and pool mining earn the same for the same hashrate. Solo mining suits miners who want a shot at a full block and accept that it may never come; pool mining suits miners who want a steady income to cover electricity.
What do I need to mine solo?
A miner, your own wallet address, and a solo pool that pays the block to that address. Stable power and internet matter: a miner that is offline is not playing.
Why do the odds change from one visit to the next?
Difficulty follows the total network hashrate. Bitcoin and Litecoin retarget every 2,016 blocks; Dogecoin retargets with every block. When more miners join, difficulty rises and every ticket gets longer odds.